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A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!
Signia Invest Insights | April 2025

Market Review and Outlook

April 2025 will go down in the history books as a seismic month in financial markets, where the centerpiece of President Trump’s first 100 days plan – ‘Liberation Day’ on 2 April – saw the announcement of US reciprocal tariffs against most of the world, resulting in a severe global market sell-off. The initial moves were truly historic in their speed, and straight after the announcement, the S&P 500 posted its 5th worst two-day decline since WWII. That turmoil also spread to the bond market, where the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5% intraday. Meanwhile, the VIX index closed above 50, something we’ve only seen this century at the height of the Global Financial Crisis and during the initial Covid-19 turmoil. Despite all of this, calm quickly returned to markets after Trump declared on social media that it was “A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”, shortly before a 90-day extension to the reciprocal tariffs was officially announced by the White House, and US officials began to renegotiate bi-lateral deals with other countries.

Miraculously, this meant that on the whole returns across many markets were relatively unchanged in April, in what will be overlooked by many in the future as an uneventful month from a performance perspective. But in reality it was historic, and it included the best day for the S&P 500 since October 2008, as well as its worst day since March 2020. Additionally, we saw the biggest weekly widening in the spread between the 10-year US Treasury yield and German Bund yield spread in data back to German reunification in 1990, the US dollar DXY index had its worst two-month performance since June 2002, and gold prices have seen their strongest start to a year since 2006. Quite remarkable.

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