SCHRÖDINGER’S FED
Signia Invest Insights | July 2025
Market Review and Outlook
• The US exceptionalism narrative, while challenged in the first half of the year, appeared to gain renewed momentum in July, with the US dollar experiencing its best month since 2022. Meanwhile, a return of Mag 7 leadership saw the Nasdaq index post a remarkable 14 record highs over the course of the month. These moves came as the White House secured what were seen as favourable trade deals, US data remained solid, and the second quarter earnings season delivered some strong results.
• Equities also outperformed in China and the UK, whilst government bonds lost some ground as fiscal easing and hawkish-leaning signals from the ECB and the Fed pushed yields higher. In other asset classes, oil benefited from both solid data and increased concerns over supply risks, while crypto had another strong month with new supportive legislation passed by the US Congress. Bitcoin continued to climb past $120,000 and to a new record, supporting fintech and payments companies like PayPal, Coinbase and Visa. Notably, as one of the major ‘Trump Trades’, Bitcoin is now up circa 75% since the US election last November.
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